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We’ve seen it all over the news, time and again – the mega infrastructure projects that blow out their budgets and timelines or even fail to get delivered at all.

It isn’t just the ones we see on our screens. In fact, in his study analysing 16,000 megaprojects, megaproject connoisseur and Oxford University Professor Bent Flyvbjerg, found a whopping 91.5% fail on the two crucial counts of delivering to budget and to time. Even so, as governments tackle aging infrastructure and decarbonisation, these megaprojects are on the rise, with McKinsey projecting the industry needs to almost double its growth rate by 2040 to deliver on the $22 trillion construction demand.

So why – when they are so important – do we still get it so wrong?

Professor Flyvbjerg puts this down to four key issues: inherent, or unconscious, cognitive and political bias can lead to poor information share and a dangerous underestimation of risk; project teams that lack clear goals; poor governance with delegated responsibilities down an organisation; and the failure to ‘think slow, act fast’ – which essentially means running rigorous simulation and planning before embarking on complex infrastructure projects.

Seequent Civil Director Pat McLarin adds that despite meticulous planning, external factors like climate change, rising supply chain costs and labour shortages present additional hurdles, marking a particularly challenging era for infrastructure leaders burdened with great responsibility. “You can take all the steps to get the project planning right, but there are so many external factors that impact a project – from changing climate conditions, to increased supply chain costs, and a shortage of skilled workers in today’s tight labour market. It’s a really challenging time for the industry with so much responsibility on its shoulders.”

Think slow before acting fast – understanding the ground

When it comes to thinking slow at the start of a project, it pays to take the time to understand the ground conditions you’re working in, says McLarin. Early planning and simulation are key to a project’s success – particularly for complex endeavors where mistakes are costly. Unforeseen ground conditions are one of the top ten drivers of claims and disputes on infrastructure projects globally, according to the CRUX Insight Report by leading global risk mitigation consultancy HKA.

This issue is widely known, and has been for years; from unstable earth undermining foundations, to unexpected hard rock that is expensive to excavate. So why do project leaders still underestimate the significance of ground analysis?

McLarin notes this can be for a variety of reasons, pointing to the bias identified by Flyvbjerg as one of the culprits. “Often, project leaders eager to meet deadlines or failing to allocate sufficient budget may skimp on ground investigations. Some are relying on outdated practices without fully understanding how far geotechnical expertise has evolved or technology’s role in mitigating risk. Sometimes, the unpredictability of the unknown and unforeseen subsurface conditions leads to risk being underestimated or ignored.”

In our Geoprofessionals Data Management Report, we found a staggering 67% of civil professionals acknowledge that they have data organised across various systems. This lack of centralisation can significantly hinder not only early planning and simulation efforts, but also impact project completion timelines, team efficiencies and decision-making processes. Things are changing, though. The industry is increasingly waking up to the new ways ground risk can be grappled with. And those that have embraced the new tools available to them are reaping the dividends.

Subsurface technology brings confidence

At Seequent, we have the most advanced and broadest software portfolio for the subsurface within the industry. In fact, all the top ten international civil design firms use Seequent software, including WSP, AECOM, Arcadis, Jacobs and AtkinsRéalis, on some of the world’s most significant megaprojects.

“A key competitive advantage for our customers is that Seequent is the subsurface specialist within Bentley Systems, the global infrastructure engineering software company. This affiliation brings a multi-disciplinary, whole of life digital twin approach to subsurface understanding, connecting the subsurface with engineering design solutions for the built world, that is unique in the market,” notes McLarin.

Our products streamline site investigations and ground modelling for geologists and geotechnical engineers helping them understand the distribution and behaviour of soil and rock. This leads to better decision making around infrastructure design and construction, reducing the time and money spent on site investigations and geotechnical modelling.

Not to mention, many industry professionals find sharing their data and 3D analyses via our cloud-based solutions a game changer for visualising subsurface challenges for both technical and non-technical stakeholders.

Arcadis Senior Technical Director, Andrea Gillarduzzi, experienced the benefits from Seequent and Bentley software on London’s recent South Dock Bridge project. “Going digital has improved collaboration between clients, architects, and design disciplines, making it easier to obtain planning permissions, consents, and funding for this exciting project”.

The South Dock Bridge 3D model showing the subsurface geology and positioning within the existing high-rise infrastructure (Image: Arcadis).

A railway line fit for a Queen

Seequent’s dynamic 3D ground modelling solution, Leapfrog Works, helped Arup to develop an early-stage digital geology model for Transport for London’s (TfL) Queen Elizabeth Line, to aid in the decision-making of on ground and groundwater conditions.

Arup Engineering Geologist Charlene Ting, says: “Seequent’s Leapfrog 3D modelling software has transformed the way we present and understand ground risk.” TfL Lead Geotechnical Engineer, Mike Black, added, “The quality and level of detail throughout the project speaks for itself. It really has been a step-change to what I have seen previously.”

Optmising highway design in challenging soils

Engineering design consultancy WSP faced a significant challenge while extending the Mitchell Freeway in Perth through a peat swamp – one of the most challenging soils for construction. Utilising Seequent’s PLAXIS, WSP automated the analysis of 160 different design options, leading to an optimal design that mitigated soil settlement risks, saving both time and resources.

Designing the longest dam in South-East Asia

With a capacity of 33 million cubic metres of water and stretching a vast 3.1 kilometres, Indonesia’s Semantok Dam is a vital asset for controlling flooding and irrigation for East Java’s prosperous agricultural sector. PT Hutama Karya (Persero) overcame the project’s unique geotechnical challenges using Bentley and Seequent 3D modelling and analysis software.

They created a reality model in just three days, almost three times faster than the eight days conventional methods would require for design validation. This accelerated design validation and construction, leading to a 183-day efficiency gain and a USD $646,000 cost saving. The geotechnical analysis also enabled safe construction by using soil as the fill material, enhancing efficiency and saving USD $2 million. Additionally, it guided development of alternative substructure strengthening methods, preventing an estimated USD $1.8 million in rework costs and ensuring continued safety.

A bird’s eye view of the Semantok Dam in Indonesia (Image: PT Hutama Karya, Persero).

It’s about precision, not brute force

Infrastructure projects are designed to deliver optimal outcomes for our communities. They are too intricate to proceed without a solid grasp of fundamentals – like the very ground on which they stand on. As McLarin emphasises, starting with a thorough ground analysis and adopting a digital twin strategy for geotechnical data builds project resilience into project delivery and unlocks value engineering prospects.