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Lyceum 2021 | Together Towards Tomorrow

Like many Pacific Rim countries, New Zealand has high seismicity and is exposed to a range of geophysical and climatic hazards.

NZ is a long, narrow island chain with very little redundancy in its infrastructure networks, which service many remote communites. Recent earthquake disasters have galvinised the New Zealand government to improve our physical and social resilience to future events. Over the past decade, several so-called ‘boundary organisations’ have been established that bring together science, practice and policy to achieve the goal of improving public awareness and preparedness for future natural hazard events.

One of these organisations is known as AF8 [Alpine Fault magnitude 8], which aims to improve response capability for a future damaging plate boundary earthquake on the Alpine Fault, and to improve the risk literacy of our citizens and emergency response agencies to support improved community-led preparedness and response efforts. This presentation will reflect on the last five years of collective effort on AF8, and the positive outcomes that have contributed to mitigating disaster risk. Lessons learned from these efforts in NZ could be applied by other nations around the world with high exposure to natural hazards.

Overview

Speaker

Caroline Orchiston
Associate Professor, Acting Director Centre for Sustainability, University of Otago

Duration

40 min

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Lyceum 2021

Video transcript

[00:00:00.213]
(upbeat music)

[00:00:10.400]
(Caroline speaking in Maori)

[00:00:13.860]
My name’s Caroline Orchiston

[00:00:15.220]
I’m from the University of Otago in New Zealand.

[00:00:18.580]
And we are the second most southern university in the world.

[00:00:22.440]
It’s springtime in New Zealand.

[00:00:23.790]
We’re currently in a COVID lockdown,

[00:00:25.580]
so I’m talking to you from my home office.

[00:00:28.680]
So if any of my kids wander into the room,

[00:00:30.790]
you’ll understand why.

[00:00:34.230]
So I’m here today to talk about resilient communities

[00:00:37.290]
and how we need to move beyond

[00:00:39.050]
sort of past traditional approaches to building resilience,

[00:00:42.720]
and put people at the center

[00:00:44.290]
of disaster risk reduction efforts worldwide.

[00:00:48.120]
Why is this important?

[00:00:52.460]
Well, we’ve got growing exposure

[00:00:54.500]
to a range of geohazards and climatic hazards.

[00:00:57.680]
Around the world, populations are increasingly exposed

[00:01:01.000]
to these types of hazard events.

[00:01:03.350]
You can see some data here from Swiss Re

[00:01:06.130]
of the cost of a range of hazards

[00:01:10.040]
that have been taking place over the last 20 or 30 years.

[00:01:12.960]
These are spread across the globe.

[00:01:14.700]
What these images don’t show you

[00:01:16.310]
is the human dimension of loss,

[00:01:18.140]
the lives and the livelihoods, the human vulnerability,

[00:01:21.630]
and the long-term nature of recovery.

[00:01:24.410]
Daily we’re hearing of new stories

[00:01:26.060]
of the impact and consequences of hazard events.

[00:01:28.590]
These are growing in frequency and intensity,

[00:01:30.940]
particularly the climatic hazards

[00:01:32.450]
driven by increasing global carbon emissions

[00:01:36.110]
and the anthropogenic causes of climate change.

[00:01:43.530]
We go back again to the Swiss Re data set from 1970,

[00:01:47.030]
right through to today,

[00:01:48.530]
and you can see the insurance costs

[00:01:50.710]
mainly from climatic hazards,

[00:01:52.020]
but also these large, infrequent,

[00:01:53.990]
but high consequence earthquakes over time.

[00:01:57.180]
You can see the Canterbury earthquakes

[00:01:58.620]
that we experienced in New Zealand in 2010,

[00:02:00.760]
alongside the Japanese earthquake and tsunami,

[00:02:04.220]
and a number of other major earthquakes through time.

[00:02:07.390]
The costs are growing, this is the key point here.

[00:02:10.037]
Insurance costs are growing through time,

[00:02:12.810]
and we need to be aware of that

[00:02:14.170]
as we move towards building more resilient communities.

[00:02:17.510]
And the future is uncertain.

[00:02:19.600]
In many ways we have places which are affected

[00:02:22.530]
by compounding and cascading hazard events.

[00:02:24.900]
We’re seeing countries and regions

[00:02:26.920]
being hit by several hazards through time,

[00:02:29.890]
and the merging of what I would call

[00:02:31.770]
the emergency management cycle

[00:02:33.910]
of reduction and readiness, and response and recovery.

[00:02:37.440]
Many communities are having

[00:02:39.160]
to go through this cycle of events

[00:02:41.840]
much more quickly than it has done in the past

[00:02:44.000]
as one event is quickly followed by another.

[00:02:48.100]
On a brighter note,

[00:02:49.230]
we’ve made significant progress

[00:02:51.230]
in improving the resilience of our critical infrastructure

[00:02:54.850]
and learning from past experiences

[00:02:56.440]
to build resilience into our communities.

[00:02:58.660]
So resilient infrastructure, which of course,

[00:03:01.260]
many of you will be involved in

[00:03:02.880]
as engineers and geoscientists,

[00:03:05.849]
that’s an important part of the puzzle.

[00:03:07.850]
And we’ve used our engineering prowess, I suppose,

[00:03:11.270]
to improve the accessibility of communities,

[00:03:14.890]
the recovery of communities after the disasters.

[00:03:18.950]
Here’s an example from New Zealand

[00:03:20.550]
of a previously very vulnerable section of highway

[00:03:23.620]
connecting the eastern and western coastlines

[00:03:25.890]
of the South Island.

[00:03:27.310]
This is Arthur’s Pass, and you can see the very windy.

[00:03:32.160]
It wasn’t even sealed at this stage back a few decades ago,

[00:03:35.960]
winding its way through some very highly exposed

[00:03:38.940]
scree slopes.

[00:03:39.870]
And this was a very vulnerable landscape

[00:03:43.550]
through which many people

[00:03:45.280]
relied on transport infrastructure links,

[00:03:48.050]
and taking food and goods through

[00:03:50.850]
from east and western coast.

[00:03:53.080]
Over time, we’ve built resilience into this place

[00:03:55.970]
through the construction of a viaduct,

[00:03:59.310]
which has, you can see now we’re looking again

[00:04:01.540]
at these scree slopes coming down off the left of the slide.

[00:04:04.260]
You can see the viaduct down in the bottom

[00:04:05.950]
and just giving you a sense of scale of this environment.

[00:04:08.500]
It’s a particularly beautiful part of the southern alps

[00:04:11.840]
of the South Island, but very exposed.

[00:04:14.210]
And over time, we’ve improved the resilience here.

[00:04:17.380]
This viaduct is built to withstand

[00:04:19.510]
a magnitude eight earthquake.

[00:04:21.310]
And just below the section of road,

[00:04:23.250]
there’s some more wonderful engineering

[00:04:24.950]
to prevent rockfall across the highway.

[00:04:27.130]
We’ve got the highway actually clipped on here

[00:04:29.480]
with a waterfall cascading over the top,

[00:04:32.370]
and some more interesting engineering projects

[00:04:36.440]
that have been done in the last couple of decades.

[00:04:40.490]
Another example from recent times

[00:04:42.120]
was the Kaikoura earthquake, which we experienced in 2016

[00:04:45.290]
in the South Island of New Zealand.

[00:04:46.850]
It was a magnitude eight earthquake

[00:04:48.860]
has struck a very high terrain area

[00:04:51.820]
of the north-western part,

[00:04:53.490]
north-eastern part of the South Island.

[00:04:55.240]
And you can see here the highway and also the rail network,

[00:04:58.670]
this is our State Highway 1,

[00:04:59.980]
our most significant road in the country

[00:05:02.270]
being completely devastated by this landslide here

[00:05:05.500]
at Ohau Point.

[00:05:07.170]
It took 13 months and a huge amount of collaboration

[00:05:10.120]
across agencies to repair this section of road.

[00:05:13.360]
Here’s what it looks like now.

[00:05:15.240]
As you can see a lot of sluicing, blasting,

[00:05:17.570]
removal of loose material from above the highway.

[00:05:20.410]
It’s been raised up several meters

[00:05:22.310]
because actually this earthquake involved

[00:05:24.110]
uplift of the coast of several meters,

[00:05:26.380]
which I suppose you could say,

[00:05:27.760]
has built resilience into this highway,

[00:05:30.040]
just through avoiding a bit of sea level rise

[00:05:32.610]
over the coming years as well.

[00:05:34.290]
But an incredible amount of work that went in

[00:05:36.550]
from a team of engineers

[00:05:37.760]
and a collaborative multi-agency project here

[00:05:40.950]
to improve the access along our,

[00:05:43.190]
well to restore the access of State Highway 1.

[00:05:46.027]
The communities were isolated from the earthquake.

[00:05:48.740]
The township of Kaikoura was closed for a year.

[00:05:52.820]
It’s a very busy bustling tourist town,

[00:05:55.050]
which really struggled in the aftermath of this event.

[00:06:00.270]
Here’s another sample just to draw into focus

[00:06:03.200]
the fact that people must always be thought about

[00:06:05.360]
as being the center of any consideration of hazards.

[00:06:08.820]
This is an example from West Washington in the USA,

[00:06:11.970]
and we’ve had some projects over there

[00:06:13.730]
over the last 10 years or so.

[00:06:15.470]
And this particular community

[00:06:17.190]
sits in very low lying coastal area

[00:06:21.340]
within spitting distance of the Cascadia subduction zone.

[00:06:24.900]
So this subduction zone has the potential to generate

[00:06:28.380]
a magnitude nine earthquake and tsunami.

[00:06:31.380]
And the tsunami risk is particularly scary

[00:06:34.830]
for these communities.

[00:06:36.550]
So the principal of the school

[00:06:38.270]
shown in the middle of the picture,

[00:06:39.540]
on the right, upper right of the slide

[00:06:41.700]
acknowledged or learnt about the science

[00:06:44.250]
of the Cascadia subduction zone

[00:06:45.820]
and realized that her community was hugely vulnerable.

[00:06:48.650]
So she went to her school district,

[00:06:50.380]
she had the ballot passed on the fourth attempt

[00:06:53.210]
to build her school as a vertical evacuation refuge,

[00:06:56.710]
or vertical evacuation structure.

[00:06:58.840]
This was completed about three years ago.

[00:07:00.930]
It took a huge amount of community support.

[00:07:03.160]
This is a low socioeconomic community

[00:07:05.590]
and they self-funded most of this build.

[00:07:08.030]
They did manage to get some FEMA funding as well.

[00:07:10.930]
For the engineers out there,

[00:07:12.440]
just some interesting facts about this build,

[00:07:15.436]
there were 169 pilings that were built,

[00:07:18.865]
or driven 15 meters into the ground, that’s 50 feet down.

[00:07:24.550]
Rated to withstand a 9.2 magnitude earthquake,

[00:07:27.250]
which would be one of the largest earthquakes ever recorded,

[00:07:30.184]
and it has a six foot parapet around

[00:07:32.320]
the top of the building here to protect the kids

[00:07:35.080]
from any waves that might go over the top here.

[00:07:38.610]
But of course, this is well outside of the likely range

[00:07:42.250]
of a tsunami wave that would affect this community.

[00:07:44.890]
It would also hold 2000 people from the local district

[00:07:47.650]
if they could get there on foot,

[00:07:49.350]
so that 2000 people are within walking distance

[00:07:52.540]
of the structure,

[00:07:53.980]
and it can be accessed by four staircases

[00:07:58.410]
in each corner of the building.

[00:07:59.920]
So a very impressive piece of community-led resilience work

[00:08:04.810]
being done here with support from USDS

[00:08:07.427]
and the local emergency management,

[00:08:09.290]
the state emergency management people as well.

[00:08:13.040]
So a really positive story here of community-led resilience.

[00:08:20.100]
I think the other thing that we need to talk about

[00:08:22.040]
and acknowledge is that the value of indigenous knowledge,

[00:08:25.210]
and so respecting different types of knowledge,

[00:08:27.190]
whether it be indigenous local community knowledge

[00:08:30.170]
or western science knowledge,

[00:08:31.860]
all parts of those are really valid and important

[00:08:35.280]
in any discussion of hazards.

[00:08:37.880]
This is Ruaumoko, who is the Atua,

[00:08:40.190]
or the God of earthquakes and volcanoes in Maori culture.

[00:08:45.400]
Native Americans have similar understandings

[00:08:47.582]
of the natural environment,

[00:08:49.370]
and in fact, the Native Americans

[00:08:51.660]
were affected by the 1700 AD

[00:08:53.890]
Cascadia magnitude nine earthquake.

[00:08:56.090]
Their community was wiped out by that event.

[00:08:58.660]
And there are lots of oral traditions of those events

[00:09:01.470]
going back in time.

[00:09:03.420]
In New Zealand, Maori are really at the forefront now

[00:09:06.270]
of leading the response to many of our events

[00:09:09.410]
that happen these days in New Zealand.

[00:09:10.950]
So this is what’s called a marae, or a meeting house.

[00:09:15.140]
This is in Kaikoura, where the earthquake happened in 2016.

[00:09:18.873]
And the Iwi, the local Maori,

[00:09:21.580]
they hosted 1200 people in this marae, tourists mainly,

[00:09:25.890]
who were stranded in the town,

[00:09:27.470]
and they effectively housed and gave them welfare

[00:09:30.060]
until they were airlifted out of this township.

[00:09:33.180]
And so indigenous knowledge,

[00:09:35.170]
indigenous resources are really important

[00:09:37.410]
in any discussion around disaster risk reduction.

[00:09:42.480]
In Christchurch in 2011,

[00:09:44.350]
of course, we had a very devastating earthquake.

[00:09:47.450]
It basically destroyed the central city of Christchurch.

[00:09:50.890]
Here is a building that catastrophically collapsed,

[00:09:54.380]
and we had two of these buildings that killed 130 people

[00:09:58.500]
out of the total casualties of 185 deaths.

[00:10:02.710]
So most of our buildings in New Zealand

[00:10:04.530]
and in Christchurch at the time

[00:10:06.680]
actually performed very well.

[00:10:07.960]
We have very good building codes in New Zealand.

[00:10:10.420]
We have a very high insurance rate in the city.

[00:10:14.970]
It was one of the biggest insured earthquake events

[00:10:19.040]
ever recorded in the world.

[00:10:21.530]
And so New Zealand was in a good position

[00:10:23.430]
to invest in recovery following this event.

[00:10:27.660]
Of course, in contrast, in that same year,

[00:10:29.520]
the Haiti earthquake occurred

[00:10:33.110]
in what is a very vulnerable population of people

[00:10:36.050]
with very poorly constructed buildings.

[00:10:38.690]
It led to 300,000 deaths, and now more tragedy

[00:10:42.780]
from the compounding earthquake and hurricane,

[00:10:44.950]
which are affecting this country as we speak.

[00:10:48.090]
The government in Haiti, of course,

[00:10:49.610]
is not able to support its people through recovery.

[00:10:53.200]
The lesson here is that we need to work as a global society

[00:10:57.240]
to improve resilience,

[00:10:58.680]
to support nations that aren’t able to support themselves,

[00:11:02.446]
and learn those critical lessons about building resilience,

[00:11:06.340]
infrastructure resilience and community resilience

[00:11:08.890]
in different contexts around the world.

[00:11:13.210]
So I’d like to now move to an example in New Zealand

[00:11:17.570]
of some work we’ve been doing

[00:11:19.000]
to build collective resilience in communities

[00:11:21.300]
around the South Island.

[00:11:22.690]
We’ve been working to find novel ways

[00:11:24.950]
to integrate research policy and practice

[00:11:28.730]
using a very collaborative design

[00:11:31.043]
with lots of good science communication,

[00:11:34.010]
and visualizations of hazards

[00:11:36.920]
in the South Island of New Zealand

[00:11:38.420]
to try and build our collective resilience to future events.

[00:11:42.310]
But before I launch into AF8,

[00:11:44.580]
which is the example I’m going to be talking about,

[00:11:47.100]
I’d like to give you a bit more context

[00:11:48.620]
around the New Zealand hazardscape, I suppose,

[00:11:51.300]
the landscape, the tectonic environment of New Zealand.

[00:11:54.500]
And of course, we sit down here in the south-west Pacific,

[00:11:58.740]
right on the Pacific Ring of Fire.

[00:12:01.550]
So we are transected by the interface

[00:12:04.920]
between the Pacific and Australian Plates.

[00:12:07.500]
Like many of our neighbors around the Pacific,

[00:12:09.410]
and I’m sure I’m speaking to many of you now from America,

[00:12:13.020]
from South America, from Canada, Japan,

[00:12:16.400]
and through South-East Asia,

[00:12:18.370]
we all live with the risks presented by the Pacific Ring.

[00:12:24.040]
This is a very active and an exciting environment

[00:12:27.130]
if you’re a geoscientist or an engineer,

[00:12:29.540]
and now we move into a slide illustrating that

[00:12:33.470]
by sort of cutting New Zealand into a block model,

[00:12:36.720]
slicing it down the middle

[00:12:38.650]
to show you what’s happening beneath the surface here

[00:12:40.700]
of this plate interface.

[00:12:42.010]
So we have a subduction zone up off the north-east coast

[00:12:47.060]
in the upper right-hand corner of the slide.

[00:12:49.580]
That subduction zone is quite mature,

[00:12:52.620]
and it’s producing volcanic activity

[00:12:55.110]
through the central North Island of New Zealand.

[00:12:57.876]
Off the south-west coast, we have another subduction zone,

[00:13:00.020]
but this time the Australian Plate

[00:13:01.840]
is subducting under the Pacific Plate.

[00:13:04.800]
And in between the two, we have a transform fault

[00:13:08.010]
linking these two major tectonic structures.

[00:13:10.920]
So this is a very active environment

[00:13:14.750]
for earthquakes in New Zealand,

[00:13:17.050]
and this is the 2010 version

[00:13:19.090]
of our national seismic hazard model.

[00:13:21.330]
And you can see the red and orange colors

[00:13:23.820]
really pointing to the plate boundary

[00:13:26.240]
as it makes its way through New Zealand.

[00:13:28.350]
This is interesting because our hazard model from 2010

[00:13:32.860]
shows these obviously reds and orange colors

[00:13:35.975]
right on the plate boundary interface.

[00:13:39.360]
But as you move away from that,

[00:13:40.700]
you can see the colors lightening up

[00:13:42.150]
into the kind of greens and blues,

[00:13:44.160]
illustrating, I suppose, to the untrained eye,

[00:13:47.550]
a relatively low seismic hazard

[00:13:49.610]
in that eastern side of the South Island

[00:13:51.670]
and the upper part of the North Island.

[00:13:54.570]
So Christchurch and Dunedin, I’m down in Dunedin,

[00:13:57.300]
which is right off the eastern coast down here,

[00:14:01.300]
both of those cities were considered to be lower,

[00:14:03.790]
relatively low seismic hazard

[00:14:05.500]
at the time of the February earthquake in 2011.

[00:14:08.890]
So our model of seismic hazard is being updated right now.

[00:14:13.480]
And I can tell you, they won’t be using

[00:14:14.960]
that low seismic hazard zone terminology,

[00:14:18.380]
I doubt very much in the next iteration of this,

[00:14:21.080]
because it really did create a sense

[00:14:22.660]
that these parts of New Zealand

[00:14:24.609]
were less likely to be affected by a future earthquake.

[00:14:30.450]
Anyway, so that’s the setup.

[00:14:33.160]
And now I’m going to show you where the Alpine Fault is,

[00:14:35.510]
and this is zooming down

[00:14:37.420]
onto the South Island of New Zealand.

[00:14:39.470]
Now the Alpine Fault comes off the south-west coast

[00:14:43.090]
of the South Island at Milford Sound,

[00:14:45.650]
and it makes its way up the western side

[00:14:49.320]
of the Southern Alps, or the high alps of the South Island,

[00:14:52.850]
before reaching the Springs Junction

[00:14:55.520]
where it branches off into a number of other faults

[00:14:58.030]
and links through into that subduction zone

[00:15:00.250]
off the north-east coast.

[00:15:01.910]
So this is the Alpine Fault.

[00:15:03.090]
It’s about 650 kilometers long.

[00:15:05.830]
And essentially what’s happening

[00:15:06.980]
across this section of the plate boundary

[00:15:08.720]
is that you’ve got the Pacific Plate coming in

[00:15:10.520]
slightly obliquely to the Alpine Fault.

[00:15:12.820]
So this is largely speaking,

[00:15:14.130]
a left sort of a, pardon me,

[00:15:16.790]
a right lateral strike slip fault,

[00:15:19.440]
but there is this component of compression.

[00:15:21.170]
So we’ve got a squeezing together

[00:15:22.700]
across the central South Island,

[00:15:24.470]
and an uplift of the Southern Alps,

[00:15:26.660]
which are beautiful high alps

[00:15:28.322]
that go right down the spine of the South Island.

[00:15:32.150]
And essentially what’s happening over time

[00:15:33.710]
is that energy is building across the plate boundary.

[00:15:37.320]
But we don’t experience earthquakes as often as,

[00:15:41.740]
there aren’t many small earthquakes along the Alpine Fault.

[00:15:44.320]
What we find is that this energy is building up,

[00:15:47.210]
and it’s released in large earthquakes over time.

[00:15:50.050]
And we have some, a pretty good understanding

[00:15:51.960]
of the past behavior of the Alpine Fault.

[00:15:54.157]
And so up until about 2010,

[00:15:55.930]
we knew of three past earthquakes.

[00:15:58.050]
Now this chart is slightly complex,

[00:16:00.400]
so I’ll talk you through it.

[00:16:01.700]
In the top right hand corner of the slide,

[00:16:04.040]
you can see a little red dot,

[00:16:05.340]
that’s the present day, that’s now.

[00:16:07.900]
And then as we move towards the left of the slide,

[00:16:10.460]
we’re going back in time, 8,000 years back in time.

[00:16:15.310]
And so those three little black histograms

[00:16:17.810]
are showing the events that we knew about in the past

[00:16:20.510]
from a range of different paleoseismic sources

[00:16:23.440]
of information and data.

[00:16:25.950]
Up until about 2010, that’s what we knew.

[00:16:28.890]
Then a team of scientists went to a location

[00:16:31.930]
at the southern end of the Alpine Fault,

[00:16:33.450]
and they made what was an incredible discovery.

[00:16:36.410]
So they went to a creek,

[00:16:38.500]
and they discovered a sequence of sedimentary deposits.

[00:16:43.440]
And you can see an image of those now

[00:16:45.870]
with some radiocarbon dates.

[00:16:47.390]
Now these stripes of sediment

[00:16:49.520]
are illustrating the landscape response

[00:16:52.161]
following major earthquakes.

[00:16:54.670]
And so on the Alpine Fault, when the ground shakes,

[00:16:59.100]
we get a landscape response,

[00:17:01.120]
which means a lot of landslides

[00:17:02.540]
are happening up in the Alps,

[00:17:03.570]
and a lot of sediment comes down through the river systems.

[00:17:07.040]
And so here,

[00:17:08.390]
we’ve captured sediment from the Alpine Fault earthquake,

[00:17:13.410]
and essentially what that told us was

[00:17:16.040]
that we had a lot more earthquakes

[00:17:18.580]
than we knew about previously,

[00:17:20.280]
so much so that the dataset

[00:17:21.820]
now extends back over 8,000 years,

[00:17:24.270]
and includes 27 earthquakes on the Alpine Fault.

[00:17:28.170]
You can see the first thing I think is pretty striking

[00:17:30.700]
is that these earthquakes are happening regularly

[00:17:33.020]
through time.

[00:17:33.853]
There’s almost like a rhythm

[00:17:34.920]
to the way the Alpine Fault behaves.

[00:17:37.010]
It’s storing up seismic energy, and then releasing it.

[00:17:40.750]
And if you do the maths on this dataset,

[00:17:43.290]
that comes out just under 300 years on average,

[00:17:46.050]
the recurrence interval

[00:17:47.810]
between major events on the Alpine Fault.

[00:17:51.980]
More recently, we’ve had some additions to the science

[00:17:54.700]
that have come along.

[00:17:55.533]
So we have new data from lakes

[00:17:59.510]
up along the central section of the Alpine Fault

[00:18:02.410]
shown here in yellow.

[00:18:03.850]
And so these four lakes similarly have sediment captured

[00:18:08.150]
in the base of those lakes,

[00:18:10.090]
and my colleague, Jamie Howarth and his team

[00:18:12.410]
have worked out on the lakes,

[00:18:13.760]
and here he is collecting data.

[00:18:15.560]
So he’s basically extracting cores

[00:18:17.780]
from the bottom of these Alpine lakes.

[00:18:20.690]
This is what they look like.

[00:18:21.820]
So you can see the stripes of sediment,

[00:18:23.380]
much like we saw in the river,

[00:18:26.520]
the creek bed that I showed you previously,

[00:18:28.780]
these stripes of sediment,

[00:18:30.060]
which are able to be radiocarbon dated

[00:18:32.130]
and produce a range of dates going back through time,

[00:18:35.020]
which really corroborated what we already knew

[00:18:37.460]
about the way the Alpine Fault was behaving.

[00:18:39.310]
So we knew of this number of earthquakes

[00:18:42.140]
going back through time.

[00:18:43.870]
So the key messages, and these are the messages

[00:18:45.910]
that we talk to communities about.

[00:18:48.367]
And we present these to the community

[00:18:50.730]
is that the Alpine Fault

[00:18:51.670]
has a long history of large earthquakes.

[00:18:54.010]
It’s remarkably regular through time,

[00:18:56.410]
and there really is no reason

[00:18:57.580]
why they should stop happening,

[00:18:59.240]
that it will continue in future.

[00:19:01.690]
The average recurrence interval is approximately 300 years,

[00:19:05.400]
with the last significant earthquake in 1717 AD.

[00:19:09.410]
The new science that was just released

[00:19:11.150]
has really updated or upgraded

[00:19:12.980]
the probability of the next earthquake

[00:19:15.000]
from what we’ve previously knew

[00:19:17.450]
of about 29% likelihood in the next 50 years.

[00:19:21.660]
That’s been upgraded to 75% probability in the next 50 years

[00:19:26.020]
of a major earthquake on the Alpine Fault.

[00:19:28.500]
And an 82% chance that this rupture,

[00:19:31.300]
or this earthquake will be a magnitude eight plus event.

[00:19:35.670]
So this sort of science, I think,

[00:19:37.040]
really is very compelling

[00:19:38.830]
in terms of the picture or the story

[00:19:41.450]
of why we need to be concerned about the Alpine Fault.

[00:19:44.500]
And so that really led to this collaboration

[00:19:47.250]
coming together in 2016.

[00:19:50.040]
So AF8 stands for Alpine Fault magnitude eight.

[00:19:54.000]
It was funded by our National Emergency Management Agency,

[00:19:58.210]
in collaboration with emergency management groups

[00:20:01.420]
around the South Island,

[00:20:02.520]
and a number of other partner agencies,

[00:20:04.160]
which I’ll mention in a moment.

[00:20:06.430]
And the goal of this event was, of this program rather,

[00:20:10.370]
was to bring together the science modeling that we had

[00:20:13.810]
off the shelf.

[00:20:14.773]
We knew a lot about the science of the Alpine Fault

[00:20:17.350]
at the time,

[00:20:18.480]
to develop a response plan for the first seven days

[00:20:21.440]
after the earthquake happens.

[00:20:22.830]
So it was really about how do we coordinate and prioritize

[00:20:26.890]
response actions in the first week

[00:20:29.050]
after an event of this scale,

[00:20:30.820]
which will affect large parts of the South Island?

[00:20:34.320]
The other part of AF8

[00:20:35.320]
was really about engaging the community,

[00:20:37.420]
talking to the people who live in these landscapes

[00:20:40.150]
and in these communities,

[00:20:41.090]
to help them understand the risks that are posed

[00:20:43.640]
by the Alpine Fault

[00:20:45.020]
and to help them get better prepared

[00:20:46.560]
for a future earthquake.

[00:20:50.790]
So this is, it’s not a unique project by any means,

[00:20:58.280]
but one of the benefits of AF8

[00:21:00.220]
was that it really was nested nicely

[00:21:02.530]
between these traditional domains

[00:21:04.780]
of research policy and practice.

[00:21:06.850]
You can see on the image,

[00:21:08.280]
the AF8 program has really nested nicely

[00:21:11.730]
between these traditional domains.

[00:21:13.850]
And that was one of the really important benefits

[00:21:16.100]
of the work that we were trying to achieve.

[00:21:17.750]
It was building on a very strong science foundation,

[00:21:20.300]
drawing on the policy and the practice.

[00:21:23.467]
People working in policy and practice

[00:21:27.080]
to inform the work that we were doing in AF8,

[00:21:29.147]
and it became a really exciting collaboration

[00:21:31.950]
which managed to get quite a lot done.

[00:21:34.850]
I find it useful to think about the boundary

[00:21:37.680]
between these traditional domains, I suppose,

[00:21:40.170]
of policy and science

[00:21:42.460]
as having very different and very contrasting needs.

[00:21:46.790]
But the fact that we needed to find a way

[00:21:50.360]
to draw these two parts of the puzzle together, I suppose.

[00:21:54.580]
So in the science domain, scientists require credibility.

[00:21:58.342]
We had to do credible science,

[00:22:01.210]
we need quality assurance through peer review.

[00:22:05.050]
And at the other end of the policy domain

[00:22:08.140]
requires relevance.

[00:22:09.170]
It’s got to be done quickly, it needs timely input-

[00:22:13.230]
And oops, excuse me.

[00:22:14.063]
Let me just click to the next part of this.

[00:22:17.030]
And it need simple information to inform policy,

[00:22:20.380]
but it has to be underpinned by strong science.

[00:22:23.770]
So scientists, we are dealing with uncertainty

[00:22:26.670]
and complex information,

[00:22:28.390]
and that takes time to produce the science products

[00:22:31.680]
that we need.

[00:22:33.740]
So we have these two sort of ends of a spectrum,

[00:22:36.470]
I suppose you could say,

[00:22:38.160]
that have very different needs and timeframes, I suppose.

[00:22:43.360]
In the middle is the hybrid zone.

[00:22:46.860]
This is where AF8 is quite nicely nested,

[00:22:49.360]
because it’s drawing on the science and the policy.

[00:22:53.140]
It requires legitimacy,

[00:22:54.660]
but it also requires the balance

[00:22:58.270]
between these two ends of the spectrum.

[00:23:00.660]
There’s compromise, there’s inclusion,

[00:23:02.540]
and there’s a lot of transparency

[00:23:03.960]
in the work that these sorts of boundary organizations

[00:23:06.820]
are trying to achieve.

[00:23:11.900]
So the first two years of AF8’s work

[00:23:14.280]
were putting together the SAFER Framework,

[00:23:18.040]
SAFER stands for the South Island Alpine Fault

[00:23:20.510]
Earthquake Response Framework.

[00:23:22.320]
And as I mentioned, this was really targeting

[00:23:24.140]
that first seven days after the disaster.

[00:23:26.700]
So it was a document that would inform

[00:23:29.780]
the coordination and the prioritization

[00:23:31.940]
of response activities over that first seven days.

[00:23:35.300]
Now this document’s been really, really powerful.

[00:23:37.550]
It has led to a number of major achievements,

[00:23:40.010]
including establishing a number of specific planning roles,

[00:23:44.980]
excuse me, planning roles in our house sector,

[00:23:48.540]
in our fire and police and other agencies

[00:23:52.220]
who have really worked to prioritize AF8 planning.

[00:23:55.370]
Based on this document and the work that AF8’s been doing,

[00:23:58.140]
they’ve actually employed staff to spend time

[00:24:00.810]
to work through this document

[00:24:02.780]
and make it relevant to their specific agency

[00:24:05.380]
so that they’re in a better position

[00:24:07.190]
to respond and to work in collaboration with others

[00:24:10.990]
when this event happens.

[00:24:12.480]
So one of the really important things from AF8

[00:24:14.450]
was having science products

[00:24:15.710]
that would help engage the public

[00:24:17.800]
on the science of the Alpine Fault.

[00:24:19.570]
We were very fortunate that my colleague, Brendon Bradley,

[00:24:21.930]
at the University of Canterbury

[00:24:23.150]
had just finished producing this animation

[00:24:25.880]
of a scenario earthquake for the Alpine Fault.

[00:24:28.450]
And he can see the Alpine Fault earthquake

[00:24:30.860]
beginning down in Milford Sound,

[00:24:33.000]
and the seismic energy starting to radiate out

[00:24:35.250]
from the epicenter.

[00:24:36.730]
And these seismic waves start to build in intensity

[00:24:39.500]
as the earthquake propagates up to the north-east

[00:24:43.430]
along the Alpine Fault.

[00:24:44.960]
You can see some of the seismic waves heading eastward

[00:24:47.630]
out towards the coast

[00:24:48.950]
and in the southern part of the South Island.

[00:24:52.210]
And this was an incredibly powerful

[00:24:56.850]
piece of science communication

[00:24:58.750]
that really helped us to draw people into the conversation

[00:25:02.610]
about the Alpine Fault.

[00:25:04.432]
You can see now as the seismic energy is moving

[00:25:07.420]
up into the northern part of the South Island,

[00:25:09.700]
and eastward out into what we call the Canterbury Plains,

[00:25:12.450]
which are deep sedimentary basins,

[00:25:14.850]
where the, you can see the seismic energy

[00:25:17.650]
is really reverberating

[00:25:18.790]
around in that deep sedimentary basin.

[00:25:20.880]
Whereas through the high alps

[00:25:22.910]
with a solid basement underneath it,

[00:25:26.680]
there’s less of that sort of a reverberation

[00:25:29.530]
of seismic energy.

[00:25:31.010]
So the other thing to note on this

[00:25:32.830]
is of course the time ticking away

[00:25:34.300]
in the upper right-hand corner,

[00:25:35.900]
and you can see this is a long earthquake.

[00:25:38.320]
This is going to go on for minutes,

[00:25:39.970]
and that was the other thing I think

[00:25:41.130]
that really drew people into this story

[00:25:43.280]
was the fact that it’s not going to happen

[00:25:46.530]
with just a few tens of seconds of ground motion.

[00:25:49.110]
This is something that’s going to roll out for minutes,

[00:25:51.810]
and it’s a big, long fault.

[00:25:54.080]
So it starts somewhere and it has to work its way

[00:25:56.120]
right along the fault zone,

[00:25:57.410]
and that all takes time to happen.

[00:26:03.150]
So this was a single scenario

[00:26:05.630]
that we use to inform the development of the SAFER Framework

[00:26:10.280]
and all of the engagement that we did with communities.

[00:26:12.510]
This is an intensity model for that earthquake scenario,

[00:26:16.810]
where the earthquake’s beginning down in Milford Sound,

[00:26:19.260]
you can see the epicenter that is in white there,

[00:26:22.980]
and the intensity or the footprint of damage

[00:26:26.190]
that’s experienced across the South Island.

[00:26:29.040]
And the first thing to note

[00:26:30.090]
is that this is a South Island wide event.

[00:26:32.520]
While there are some parts of the island in this scenario

[00:26:35.590]
that are less likely less damaged, will be less damaged,

[00:26:39.920]
of course they will, for example,

[00:26:42.310]
where I live in area of which has intensity four or five

[00:26:45.960]
in the southern south-eastern part of the South Island,

[00:26:49.080]
we might still be affected by disruption

[00:26:51.060]
through the electricity network being damaged,

[00:26:53.100]
and there might be blackouts

[00:26:54.130]
across large parts of the island

[00:26:56.829]
and other types of indirect consequences.

[00:26:59.910]
So this is a South Island wide earthquake,

[00:27:03.140]
and I think again,

[00:27:03.973]
that really drew people into the story

[00:27:05.700]
of us all being in this together as South Islanders.

[00:27:09.310]
So we did some modeling to understand

[00:27:11.950]
the potential impacts and consequences of the ground motions

[00:27:15.240]
generated by the scenario earthquake.

[00:27:17.460]
And so this is the State Highway Network

[00:27:20.810]
with peak ground velocities.

[00:27:23.020]
And you can see many of our highways do very well,

[00:27:26.960]
but the ones that are worst affected

[00:27:28.740]
are those around the Southern Alps

[00:27:30.020]
and on the western side of the Alpine Fault.

[00:27:32.240]
And you can see these orange and yellow colors

[00:27:34.670]
showing very high ground velocities,

[00:27:37.740]
which will cause significant damage to the highway network.

[00:27:41.690]
We did a similar analysis for the bridges,

[00:27:44.110]
and of course, west of the Southern Alps,

[00:27:47.720]
we have a lot of rivers.

[00:27:48.860]
It’s a very high rainfall area

[00:27:52.940]
’cause we have a lot of western weather

[00:27:54.660]
that comes across the Tasman Sea,

[00:27:57.110]
strikes the natural barrier of the South Island

[00:27:59.280]
and dumps a lot of rain.

[00:28:00.730]
And so there are lots of big rivers

[00:28:02.750]
that go down to the western side of the alps,

[00:28:06.220]
and many bridges as a consequence,

[00:28:08.840]
so many of our communities on the west coast

[00:28:11.180]
are linked by bridges.

[00:28:12.540]
They’re the lifeblood of the community.

[00:28:14.020]
If the bridge goes down,

[00:28:15.420]
then people can’t travel up and down

[00:28:17.680]
the long narrow coastal strip of the west coast.

[00:28:24.770]
We also did an analysis on the likely landslide distribution

[00:28:29.390]
across the Southern Alps.

[00:28:30.223]
And of course, when you shake mountains,

[00:28:32.100]
there are going to be landslides very pervasively

[00:28:34.590]
across that high topography.

[00:28:37.930]
And so you can see that distribution, right,

[00:28:40.670]
a lot of landslides happening

[00:28:42.370]
around 10 kilometers either side

[00:28:44.120]
of the Alpine Fault rupture itself.

[00:28:46.870]
And then we can overlay the landslide model with,

[00:28:49.420]
for example here, the State Highway Network,

[00:28:53.110]
and you can see the pinchpoints

[00:28:54.740]
where landslides are likely to cross the highway

[00:28:57.450]
and cause additional disruption.

[00:29:00.850]
So not only from ground motions,

[00:29:02.180]
but from landslides crossing the road.

[00:29:04.660]
And you can see Arthur’s Pass,

[00:29:05.960]
which I showed you in the early slides.

[00:29:07.450]
This is the road that links

[00:29:08.840]
the eastern and western coastlines.

[00:29:10.870]
You can see that’s a real pinchpoint

[00:29:12.380]
because of that really unstable terrain

[00:29:15.650]
around the valleys, or the Pass

[00:29:19.770]
that goes across the alps there.

[00:29:21.780]
And the highway that essentially is crisscrossed

[00:29:25.600]
right down the west coast,

[00:29:26.730]
particularly around Franz Josef and Fox Glacier, sorry,

[00:29:31.980]
another really important tourism destination for New Zealand

[00:29:35.950]
is severely effected by rupture and landslides

[00:29:40.270]
across the Alpine Fault zone there and the highway.

[00:29:45.000]
And we did a analysis of the likely timeframes

[00:29:50.000]
for restoration of the network.

[00:29:51.410]
Now, this was a essentially a qualitative piece of work

[00:29:55.220]
involving community leaders,

[00:29:57.350]
but also key people from agencies

[00:30:00.040]
like the New Zealand Transport Agency

[00:30:02.120]
and the electricity network people as well.

[00:30:04.770]
And so this was essentially trying to understand their views

[00:30:07.890]
on how long it might take to restore the roads.

[00:30:10.540]
You can see timestamps going from day one

[00:30:13.000]
after the earthquake,

[00:30:14.060]
where many of these roads are in red

[00:30:16.970]
and therefore have no access.

[00:30:19.000]
And as time goes along

[00:30:20.440]
through the weeks and months following this event,

[00:30:22.720]
you can see even after six months,

[00:30:25.490]
the red highway through Arthur’s Pass down the west coast,

[00:30:29.300]
and the next pass, the Haast Pass,

[00:30:34.120]
which also connects the eastern and western parts

[00:30:36.820]
of the South Island,

[00:30:37.653]
again with no access well beyond the six month part phase

[00:30:42.180]
of this event.

[00:30:43.340]
So these communities in the southern and western parts

[00:30:46.390]
of the South Island will be isolated by road

[00:30:49.130]
for many, many months after an event like this.

[00:30:52.070]
And that’s cause for concern.

[00:30:55.440]
So another piece of work that was undertaken

[00:30:57.590]
by the University of Auckland,

[00:30:59.610]
and my colleague Liam Wotherspoon,

[00:31:01.590]
involved looking at the network interdependencies

[00:31:04.880]
across all of our horizontal infrastructure in New Zealand.

[00:31:07.820]
So this is, these are the networks

[00:31:12.450]
that they considered in this analysis.

[00:31:14.910]
And then they modeled their cumulative disruption

[00:31:18.030]
and recovery of those networks.

[00:31:19.690]
And so understanding the interdependencies

[00:31:22.230]
between these networks, for example,

[00:31:23.710]
the, if electricity goes down,

[00:31:25.760]
then communication is going to be affected,

[00:31:27.540]
and we won’t be able to pump the fuel at fuel stations,

[00:31:29.990]
those sorts of things.

[00:31:31.280]
Understanding those interdependencies

[00:31:32.920]
showed that across the whole island,

[00:31:35.120]
there would be disruption.

[00:31:37.760]
The only reason the very south-west corner

[00:31:39.900]
of the South Island has none

[00:31:41.350]
is because no one lives there.

[00:31:42.660]
That’s a great big national park

[00:31:44.240]
with no infrastructure in it.

[00:31:46.940]
The rest of the island is affected

[00:31:48.340]
by some degree of disruption for the first week at least,

[00:31:52.190]
and then we see from the months

[00:31:53.720]
and into the six months after this event,

[00:31:55.990]
lingering disruption from these interdependencies

[00:32:00.330]
as time goes on and into six months and beyond,

[00:32:04.080]
we can still see the west coast and the upper South Island

[00:32:07.410]
is experiencing some sort of disruption through time.

[00:32:13.780]
So how do we take all of that?

[00:32:16.160]
How do we work with communities to raise their awareness

[00:32:19.380]
and build preparedness

[00:32:21.000]
so that when this event happens in future,

[00:32:23.180]
this inevitable event,

[00:32:25.040]
they’re in a better position as communities

[00:32:26.830]
to look after themselves.

[00:32:28.160]
Our agencies are aware of the connections and collaborations

[00:32:32.070]
that they will be working with

[00:32:34.920]
during the response and into the recovery

[00:32:37.200]
following an event like this.

[00:32:38.340]
How do we do that effectively?

[00:32:40.550]
And I think one of the big parts of AF8’s work

[00:32:43.130]
has been that outreaching and engaging on the science.

[00:32:46.050]
We’ve teamed up

[00:32:46.920]
with a number of other regional hazard initiatives

[00:32:49.980]
across New Zealand.

[00:32:51.280]
So AF8’s terrain, or I guess it’s a field area

[00:32:56.700]
is the South Island,

[00:32:57.720]
but in the North Island of New Zealand,

[00:33:00.050]
we are exposed to a range of other hazards, of course.

[00:33:02.470]
We have volcanic hazards,

[00:33:04.720]
so the ECLIPSE program and the DEVORA program

[00:33:07.650]
are focused on volcanic risk.

[00:33:09.330]
What’s called East Coast Lab or Life at the Boundary

[00:33:12.610]
is a coastal hazards earthquake tsunami initiative.

[00:33:15.970]
And so we’ve worked across these public initiatives

[00:33:19.440]
to do better in terms of public education and engagement.

[00:33:23.770]
And so some of the initiatives,

[00:33:25.180]
I’ll give you a taste of what those look like.

[00:33:27.590]
This for example, was an initiative that kicked off in 2020.

[00:33:32.200]
We were meant to be out on our roadshow at this stage,

[00:33:35.290]
but we really had to pivot to COVID,

[00:33:39.210]
and we shifted onto digital platforms

[00:33:42.090]
to do a lot of our engagement.

[00:33:43.580]
And so what AF8 believes

[00:33:45.900]
is that we need to be listening to our audiences

[00:33:47.890]
and being responsive to the questions that they might have

[00:33:50.260]
about these types of hazards.

[00:33:51.487]
And so we called it A Lot on our Plates,

[00:33:54.640]
plates obviously referring to the plate boundary

[00:33:56.880]
that we sit on,

[00:33:57.740]
but also, you know, a lot on our plates,

[00:33:59.860]
sort of a nice play on words there.

[00:34:02.560]
So listening to our audiences,

[00:34:04.110]
asking them questions and getting their feedback.

[00:34:07.160]
And this event was a live Q&A with scientists.

[00:34:11.200]
We had hundreds of people on the call

[00:34:13.150]
and they were asking questions

[00:34:14.980]
and getting answers from the scientists directly,

[00:34:17.850]
which was really exciting to be part of.

[00:34:22.740]
Here’s another snapshot from our social media campaign,

[00:34:26.020]
trying to help people understand

[00:34:27.370]
what that plate boundary really does involve.

[00:34:29.820]
So we’ve got the red line off the coast there

[00:34:31.720]
of the Hikurangi subduction zone.

[00:34:33.570]
We’ve got the Alpine Fault,

[00:34:35.100]
and we have this transition zone in between

[00:34:37.180]
where Wellington, our capital city is sitting,

[00:34:40.500]
and exposed to a range of earthquake sources.

[00:34:43.310]
So again, just an opportunity for people to ask questions

[00:34:46.060]
and have answers posted almost immediately from scientists.

[00:34:51.530]
And we have a team of about 30 Alpine Fault specialists

[00:34:54.760]
who help us work on these sorts of engagement activities.

[00:34:59.180]
So we ask people who have the expertise

[00:35:01.470]
to respond to these questions.

[00:35:06.570]
Just trying to break down some of the things

[00:35:10.020]
that confuse people, I suppose,

[00:35:11.490]
the difference, for example,

[00:35:12.610]
between magnitude and intensity.

[00:35:14.630]
Just putting out some really clear and simple communication,

[00:35:17.520]
again, on social media platforms

[00:35:19.150]
to help people understand these things

[00:35:21.140]
and answer questions again as quickly as we can.

[00:35:24.400]
The AF8 Roadshow, this was the 2019 campaign,

[00:35:29.850]
and we took it to 12 communities

[00:35:31.960]
in the highest risk areas of the South Island.

[00:35:35.490]
What the roadshow involves is a community public meeting

[00:35:39.320]
and a number of schools visits.

[00:35:41.170]
So we have a schools program that we run.

[00:35:43.230]
This is the schedule that we did in this year, in 2021.

[00:35:47.280]
We went to an additional 14 communities.

[00:35:49.270]
So all up, we’ve reached 26 communities

[00:35:51.740]
around the South Island.

[00:35:53.620]
We take scientists on the road,

[00:35:54.950]
they do, they present their science at the public events,

[00:35:58.950]
and we have a educator who goes into the schools

[00:36:01.210]
to help children understand earthquakes,

[00:36:03.630]
but also what about how we can get better prepared

[00:36:06.620]
in our communities for this kind of an event.

[00:36:11.220]
And here’s an image there of the school’s work.

[00:36:14.280]
We have a beautiful block model of the South Island,

[00:36:16.810]
which we project down onto

[00:36:18.320]
in terms of putting the intensity model

[00:36:20.820]
and other things down onto that map

[00:36:22.550]
so that the kids can learn about the geography

[00:36:24.890]
of the South Island.

[00:36:26.180]
And the public events have been really well attended.

[00:36:28.160]
We’ve had hundreds of people come out

[00:36:29.640]
from these very small communities

[00:36:31.100]
and pack out their little community halls

[00:36:33.350]
to hear about the science of the Alpine Fault.

[00:36:42.200]
So, I just want to wrap up now with some final thoughts.

[00:36:46.340]
Of course, it’s a big, big challenge that we’re faced with

[00:36:51.200]
in terms of building, reducing risk,

[00:36:53.970]
and building resilience.

[00:36:55.870]
And as engineers, I know that your focus

[00:36:57.630]
is on doing the very best you can

[00:37:00.550]
to build strong infrastructure

[00:37:03.010]
and to improve the way that we do things in that respect.

[00:37:05.610]
Just, I guess, a few things to think about

[00:37:07.610]
in terms of understanding how we can do the best that we can

[00:37:12.090]
to do this job.

[00:37:13.330]
I think the importance

[00:37:14.360]
of trusted credible science and risk reduction

[00:37:17.180]
can’t be underestimated.

[00:37:18.950]
I think scientists as well, you know,

[00:37:21.592]
you need to get people who can talk in an engaging way

[00:37:26.640]
about their science, make it interesting,

[00:37:30.020]
show their passion for their science.

[00:37:31.440]
I think that really does make a difference

[00:37:33.000]
in terms of engaging agencies, ministries, embassies,

[00:37:38.400]
and communities about the sort of stuff.

[00:37:39.990]
You need to get the right sorts of scientists

[00:37:43.370]
in front of those sorts of public groups.

[00:37:46.270]
You know, science gives credibility.

[00:37:48.330]
It increases trust.

[00:37:50.590]
It’s required to inform decision-making,

[00:37:54.610]
and it’s incredibly important for engaging with the public.

[00:38:01.220]
Secondly, we have to learn from our experiences

[00:38:05.540]
from past disasters

[00:38:06.730]
to help us incrementally build societal resilience.

[00:38:10.740]
After the Canterbury earthquakes,

[00:38:11.900]
New Zealand made significant investments in science.

[00:38:14.920]
We’ve got two major science programs

[00:38:17.300]
that are focused on earthquake resilience in New Zealand,

[00:38:20.120]
and those are helping

[00:38:21.950]
to embed some of those lessons learned.

[00:38:24.410]
We are updating our building code.

[00:38:26.150]
We have rapid policy change that’s happened

[00:38:28.740]
as a consequence of recent earthquakes where we’ve,

[00:38:31.240]
for example, protecting life safety

[00:38:34.670]
by removing parapets from heritage buildings

[00:38:37.490]
or tying those back, and removing facades, et cetera,

[00:38:42.620]
and sort of tying back facades

[00:38:45.370]
so that we improve life safety.

[00:38:47.520]
So we have to learn,

[00:38:48.480]
we have to incrementally build societal resilience.

[00:38:51.600]
We have to invest in resilience and resilient infrastructure

[00:38:54.610]
before the next disaster,

[00:38:56.310]
which we know helps save money in the long-term.

[00:38:58.910]
If we invest early,

[00:39:00.360]
we have better outcomes after a disaster.

[00:39:02.810]
And similarly, we need to prepare our communities

[00:39:06.140]
before an event,

[00:39:07.750]
and that will help them recover

[00:39:09.320]
and respond to an event as well.

[00:39:11.470]
Thirdly, we need to work really hard

[00:39:15.060]
at communicating our science effectively.

[00:39:17.680]
Now we saw the visual of the earthquake

[00:39:20.350]
on the Alpine Fault earlier,

[00:39:21.720]
this is a screenshot taken from ABC International,

[00:39:24.910]
which was an Australian media company

[00:39:27.500]
who reported on the Alpine Fault this year in June.

[00:39:30.660]
They took that animation, they put it into a story map.

[00:39:33.420]
It got a huge amount of interest from the Australian public,

[00:39:36.670]
and we did a number of interviews.

[00:39:39.100]
So that image has really improved our reach

[00:39:44.140]
across not only New Zealand,

[00:39:45.420]
but into other parts of the world.

[00:39:47.910]
What it does is it helps people take people on the journey

[00:39:51.290]
and helps people make the decision

[00:39:53.410]
that they are going to take action,

[00:39:54.750]
that they are going to get better prepared

[00:39:56.720]
for themselves as individuals,

[00:39:58.330]
and hopefully to help their communities

[00:40:00.950]
get better prepared as well.

[00:40:02.790]
So science communication through these visual,

[00:40:05.270]
these engaging science communication tools

[00:40:07.940]
is really important part of this as well.

[00:40:12.670]
Interdisciplinarity and collaboration

[00:40:14.620]
is really important here.

[00:40:16.290]
I’d challenge you as engineers or geoscientists

[00:40:19.460]
to look around the table for your projects

[00:40:22.070]
and ask the question,

[00:40:23.890]
do we have a diverse enough group here?

[00:40:25.860]
Do we have women in our group?

[00:40:27.110]
Do we have people from other countries?

[00:40:29.920]
Do we have different ethnicities

[00:40:32.320]
represented in our project teams?

[00:40:34.440]
Because it makes a difference.

[00:40:36.400]
You know, when you have diverse views

[00:40:38.710]
on a challenging topic,

[00:40:41.230]
it makes a difference to have those voices around the table.

[00:40:43.960]
Not only that, we need engineers

[00:40:45.840]
to be working with communication designers,

[00:40:47.890]
we need communication designers

[00:40:50.060]
to be working with risk communication specialists.

[00:40:52.510]
We need social scientists involved

[00:40:54.140]
in science projects and engineering projects.

[00:40:57.290]
We all need to get around the table.

[00:40:59.540]
In New Zealand, we’re very fortunate.

[00:41:00.870]
We’ve got some quite large research programs,

[00:41:03.180]
which are really driving

[00:41:04.600]
the interdisciplinarity of our science in this domain,

[00:41:09.010]
and we’re very fortunate

[00:41:09.930]
to be able to do that in New Zealand.

[00:41:11.780]
And I’d encourage others around the world

[00:41:13.430]
to try and do the same.

[00:41:15.860]
And knowledge is power.

[00:41:18.160]
Globally, our communities are going to continue

[00:41:20.360]
to face uncertainty.

[00:41:22.310]
They need to be part of the conversation to find solutions.

[00:41:25.660]
It’s not good enough for us just to deliver science

[00:41:28.470]
to these communities anymore.

[00:41:29.840]
It’s not what they want.

[00:41:32.600]
They want to be of the conversation early,

[00:41:35.150]
and to get involved

[00:41:36.270]
and to get a sense of agency for themselves

[00:41:39.190]
in terms of the direction that their future is going to take.

[00:41:43.190]
And the example here is manage retreat.

[00:41:46.240]
That’s the terminology that we use in New Zealand

[00:41:48.940]
for a climate and a sea level rise hazard

[00:41:51.610]
where many of our communities are coastal,

[00:41:53.810]
and many of those are going to be threatened in the next,

[00:41:57.540]
the coming decades,

[00:41:59.110]
do we just tell them they have to leave their community?

[00:42:02.650]
That’s not going to work.

[00:42:03.880]
People are very tied to place.

[00:42:05.470]
They have a strong sense of place and community,

[00:42:08.520]
and they’re not going to want to be uplifted

[00:42:10.110]
without having some input on that decision.

[00:42:13.330]
And so these sorts of communities,

[00:42:15.940]
they need to be part of the conversation.

[00:42:17.900]
They need the knowledge to help inform that,

[00:42:19.810]
and so I’d encourage anyone doing these sorts of projects

[00:42:23.340]
to try and get out early in their timeframes

[00:42:26.850]
to talk to communities, get them involved early,

[00:42:29.210]
get some representation

[00:42:30.520]
so that they can be part of their conversation as well.

[00:42:35.700]
And finally, just a final slide showing some of our AF8 team

[00:42:39.610]
actually standing on the Alpine Fault.

[00:42:42.050]
This is the best exposure of the Alpine Fault

[00:42:44.900]
in south Westland at Gaunt Creek.

[00:42:47.410]
It was a really amazing journey for us

[00:42:49.190]
to go there as a team.

[00:42:50.600]
It was almost like a pilgrimage,

[00:42:52.270]
and an exciting day of being right on the plate boundary.

[00:42:56.270]
But really this picture is telling us

[00:42:57.740]
that it’s all about the people, the people on the team,

[00:43:00.870]
the people exposed to the risk presented by this hazard.

[00:43:05.240]
And I’d like to finish on a Maori proverb,

[00:43:08.190]
which speaks very much to this human dimension

[00:43:11.350]
of hazards and risks.

[00:43:13.316]
(Caroline speaking in Maori)

[00:43:15.980]
What is the most important thing in the world?

[00:43:18.549]
(Caroline speaking in Maori)

[00:43:21.440]
It is the people.

[00:43:22.770]
It is the people, it is the people.

[00:43:25.470]
Kia ora, thank you very much for listening.

[00:43:27.600]
(upbeat music)