By Paul Gorman
Don’t underestimate the influence and power of China when it comes to harnessing geothermal energy.
That’s the view of Seequent Segment Director Energy Jeremy O’Brien and International Geothermal Association Chief Executive Marit Brommer on a groundbreaking report highlighting the energy’s global possibilities in coming decades.
Last December’s International Energy Agency (IEA) report The Future of Geothermal Energy analysed the market potential for this much-needed source of low-emission electricity.
China, along with the United States and India, has one of the largest potential markets for next-generation geothermal power, with the three together accounting for three-quarters of the world’s total.
China has a pressing need to move away from coal if it is to meet the 2060 carbon neutrality goals of its 14th Five-Year Plan.
Currently it consumes almost half of the globe’s geothermal energy, using it exclusively for space heating across large district-heating networks. But it can go a lot further.
The report said China used about 580 petajoules of geothermal energy in 2023.
IGA CEO Marit Brommer and Seequent Segment Director, Energy, Jeremy O”Brien at the announcement of a strategic two-year partnership to promote geothermal’s potential.
Source: Seequent
‘China is the largest user of geothermal district heating worldwide, accounting for two-thirds of the total, with extensive district-network infrastructure in its Eastern and Northern provinces stemming from policies supporting the decarbonisation of heating.
‘Nevertheless, geothermal represents just 4% of the country’s district-heat supply, which is dominated by coal.’
Brommer called the report a ‘landmark’ for lifting the profile of geothermal energy, but one which ‘notably underestimates’ China’s part in it, particularly its ability to lead.
‘It significantly under-represents China’s current achievements and future leadership, especially in geothermal heating. It’s a fast-moving player integrating geothermal into cities, industry, and clean-energy transition plans.
‘To truly accelerate geothermal worldwide, we need to learn from China’s scale, speed, and systems approach,’ she said.
O’Brien said China’s geothermal momentum was not just impressive, it was instructive.
‘The scale and speed of deployment, especially in district heating, offer valuable lessons for global energy transition strategies,’ he said.
According to the report, geothermal power and heat investments exceeded $47 billion in 2023 and accounted for more than 5% of total spending on all renewable-energy projects.
Heating applications for residential and commercial buildings, including ground-source heat pumps, made up more than 95% of global geothermal investments, with China alone registering more than 70% of all geothermal investments.
‘Investments in the use of geothermal energy for heating and/or cooling have been increasing steadily and have in fact doubled since the IEA first began tracking them in 2014, though China is almost exclusively responsible for this rise.
‘Chinese policy under the 13th and 14th Five-Year Plans – including targets for the amount of area heated by geothermal energy – has driven recent uptake,’ it said.
Seequent Segment Director, Energy, Jeremy O’Brien talks to geothermal’s potential as part of the energy transition.
Source: Seequent
In terms of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), China has the second largest potential (behind the US), accounting for almost 8% of the global total.
‘The Chinese government has identified the provinces of Hainan, Guangdong and Fujian as potential enhanced geothermal sites owing to their favourable geological conditions. Large cities with particularly strong district heating potential include Beijing, Xingtai, Shijiazhuang and Tangshan.’
Because of its high degree of electrification and strong reliance on coal, China is the nation which most needs to expand its clean energy sector to meet its 2060 goal of carbon neutrality, the report said.
‘China is already on track to deploy huge amounts of solar PV (photovoltaic) and wind energy, but clean dispatchable power capacity needs to increase by nearly 650 gigawatts (GW) over the next 25 years to maintain electricity security, of which close to half could be geothermal.’
Global electricity demand is set to increase at six times the pace of total energy demand over the next decade, as highlighted by the World Energy Outlook 2024, the IEA report stated.
‘One-third of this growth comes from China, although electricity demand is set to increase in all regions and will accelerate further in upcoming years, thanks to growth in end-use electrification (eg electric vehicles and heat pumps) and rising industry, data centre and artificial intelligence (AI) consumption.’
Interested in more energy content? Sign up to Seequent Unearthed newsletter
Brommer said China is a geothermal thought leader and not just a ‘potential market’.
‘It is already the largest geothermal heating market in the world, and scaling further each year.
‘Sinopec and Sinopec Green Energy, a Sino-Icelandic joint venture with Arctic Green Energy, alone has drilled over 1000 deep geothermal wells and more than 6000 shallow wells to support urban and rural heating networks. These systems provide clean, reliable heat to millions of square metres of floor space, replacing coal in cities across Hebei, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Xiong’an, and beyond.
‘These are not pilot or one-off projects – they are fully operational district systems with high reinjection rates, climate-aligned performance, and integration into smart energy infrastructure. Some cities have transitioned entire heating grids to geothermal, with measurable reductions in air pollution and carbon emissions.’
There are clear targets in the 14th Five-Year Plan for geothermal clean-heat expansion, she said.
‘Sinopec and its partners are actively building the infrastructure, workforce, and digital systems required to scale geothermal as a clean baseload solution for heat and potentially electricity.
‘Yet in the IEA report, this leadership is treated as a footnote. Ignoring China’s geothermal trajectory means missing one of the most effective, proven models for coal replacement and fossil-free district energy anywhere in the world.
‘As the world looks for dispatchable, firm, clean energy options, China’s geothermal experience deserves not only recognition, but for sure replication.’
* Seequent and the International Geothermal Association have entered a strategic partnership to unlock geothermal energy’s potential for a sustainable future