By Jeremy O’Brien
A revised estimate of the Great Basin of Nevada’s geothermal energy potential comes at a time when innovation, technology and new fast-track permitting rules set the scene for it to play a prominent role in future energy security, and the push for US energy independence.
In a recent report, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimates that geothermal energy from the earth below Nevada and bordering states, could generate 10% of national electricity supply – a considerable upgrade to its original 2008 estimate.
This comes weeks after the Department of the Interior announced that three proposals for geothermal projects in Nevada, by global player Ormat, would be the first to benefit from a new fast-track permitting process that will take a maximum of 28 days. Earlier this year the President included geothermal as a source of energy that should be prioritised for development as part of his declaration of a national energy emergency.
Seequent Segment Director Jeremy O’Brien says the possibilities for geothermal to contribute significantly to the energy transition are exciting.
These are timely developments in light of the Energy Information Administration’s recent forecast that electricity consumption will grow to all-time highs in 2025 and 2026. This uptick in demand is set to continue, with the AI data centre boom, and increasing industrial electricity use fuelling future demand.
Low carbon energy is set to play an increasing role in meeting the nation’s electricity supply. But despite geothermal being one of two low carbon energy sources that are ‘always on’, meaning they can deliver valuable baseload supply without relying on environmental conditions, today it contributes less than 0.5% to US electricity supply.
The upgraded Great Basin estimate is contingent on ‘technological advances’ to access Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS). In naturally occurring systems, water heated by the earth’s core transmits heat as it travels through cracks and fissures in the earth’s crust towards the surface. EGS resources are created by stimulating hot rocks in the earth’s crust and injecting water into the pathways created, enabling geothermal production in areas without natural permeability.
Fervo Energy developed a successful pilot 3.5MW next-generational geothermal power plant in Nevada which now delivers carbon-free electricity to the grid that serves power to Google’s data centres. (Image: Fervo Energy)
While EGS resources require technology that isn’t widely used in geothermal energy production, they have been utilised by several operators. A good example is Fervo Energy, which in 2023 successfully tested a 3.5MW EGS now powering Google data centers across Nevada. Using technology more commonly found in the oil and gas industries helped Fervo to successfully complete horizontal wells through very hard rock formations to access the untapped, and previously inaccessible geothermal energy trapped deep under the earth.
Coupled with innovative use of technology from the oil and gas sector, the use of subsurface software enabled Fervo to manage costs and time invested in a project that involved drilling what’s thought to be the world’s hottest horizontal geothermal wells into hard rock.
Fervo’s recent announcement that it had secured $200 million in investment capital to continue development at its Cape Station EGS operation, which seeks to bring 500MW of power online by 2028, suggests EGS will soon begin unlocking geothermal’s potential. This potential was recognised by the International Energy Association last year when it said geothermal could meet 15% of global electricity demand growth to 2050, if innovation, including the use of oil and gas industry techniques, and cost reductions, continued.
10%
geothermal could generate up to 10% of US electricity
28 DAYS
maximum number of days to fast-track permit
500MW
Cape Station EGS generation target by 2028
But it’s not only the emergence of EGS that can benefit from the use of subsurface modelling software. California-based Calpine Corporation operates the US’s oldest, and the world’s largest geothermal complex. In operation since the 1960s, The Geysers were at risk after over-development depleted reservoir pressure. Calpine used Seequent’s 3D modelling software to precisely target wells, including those that reinject millions of gallons of reused water daily to sustain a system that produces enough electricity to power 725,000 homes. More broadly, the software helps Calpine optimise geothermal energy production, plan new wells efficiently, and improve generation profiles at specific facilities.
Whether it’s breathing new life into an existing geothermal development or accessing the immense geothermal potential deep underground, technology imported from the oil and gas industries along with subsurface software, can help unlock the undoubted potential of America’s significant geothermal resources.
At a time of global uncertainty, when electricity demand is set to eclipse recent all-time highs, innovation is reducing the cost of geothermal and opening opportunities to realise the potential of vast reserves, like those beneath Nevada’s Great Basin. With investment accelerating, and fast-track permitting, it is well positioned to support America’s future energy needs.
Jeremy O’Brien
Segment Director – Energy, Seequent
Jeremy O’Brien is Segment Director for Energy at Seequent, The Bentley Subsurface Company, which supplies subsurface software to operators generating more than 50 % of global geothermal electricity supply. He holds a Bachelor of Science in Geology and a Master of Science (Hons) in Geology and Geochemistry.
He has a background in resource evaluation and management, strategic management and leadership, having worked for Mercury, a leading geothermal operator in New Zealand, Halliburton’s technology solutions team in Europe and now Seequent. He has worked with global, multidisciplinary teams to ensure longevity of resources and viable economic returns.